According to a recent eMarketer article, “Some Advertising Shines in Dark Times” nearly all media sectors will experience advertising spending declines in 2009.
“Hardest hit will be traditional media such as newspapers, radio, magazines and TV, each falling by 14% or more.”
Technology is causing both a growth and decline in advertising expenditures. Especially with increase in efficiency and metrics. But this isn’t necessarily a bad thing if agencies are prepared to follow the money.
Here’s where the declining shifts are occurring:
- According to the “Media Advertising Forecast” from MAGNA, nearly all media sectors will experience advertising spending declines in 2009.
- Hardest hit will be traditional media such as newspapers, radio, magazines and TV, each falling by 14% or more.
- Even the once-indomitable online ad space is faltering, with MAGNA expecting a 2.2% total spending decrease.
- National online ads, which encompass display, classifieds, mobile, e-mail and online video, will fall by 15%. Most of the drop will come from a weakening display ad market.
And here’s where the growth is occurring:
- eMarketer projects digital ad spending will grow by 4.5% in 2009
- Mobile and online video are going the other direction—up. MAGNA projections show mobile advertising revenues growing 36% to $229 million in 2009, and to $409 million in 2011.
- Online video ad spending will increase 32% to $699 million in 2009, and over $1 billion in 2011.
These trends don’t mean that traditional media wont rebound following the recession. It does mean that there will be a permanent addition to our marketing mix and agencies will need to be prepared and equipped for it.
Scott Nelson, principal of Nelson Creative, Atlanta, GA was telling me the unusual year his agency was having. He says,
“While TV Media spending will be down, TV Production is WAY UP. You shoot a tv spot now and here are all the places it can go:
- TV networks
- TV cable
- Motion Billboards
- E-Mail blasts
- On-line/Web sites
“Media with Motion, like Film, will continue to move up. Media that is still…ie; print, collateral, yellow pages, will stay still and go away. Several Media Companies predict that newspapers and magazines are tomorrow’s “phone booths.” Or as Steven Jobs said in his Apple Mission Statement 30 years ago: “We envision a paperless society.”